Dataset: 24-hour probabilistic solar X-ray flare forecasts, issued hourly and 6 hourly [00, 06, 12 and 18UT]


Description

The product contains probabilistic forecasts of X-ray solar flare activity expected to occur within a 24 hour period following the forecast issue time.
The forecast probabilities pertain to the full visible solar disk and/or discrete active regions on the Sun. The probabilities relate to flaring at each of two magnitude levels:

  1. M-class or greater flares (peak flux in 1-8Å band exceeding 10-5 W/m2) [NOAA R-scale R-1 equivalent];
  2. X-class or greater flares (peak flux in 1-8Å band exceeding 10-4 W/m2) [NOAA R-scale R-3 equivalent];
    The forecasts are generated hourly by the Australian Bureau of Meteorology, based on statistical models of solar flare activity. The statistical models rely on observations of the structure, complexity, evolution and recent flaring history of visible sunspot groups to generate forecasts of future flaring probability.
    The 24hour forecast (issued hourly) is available on a webpage (from the SPS website [see: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au/Solar/1/10 ])
    An XML-format version of the probabilistic 24 hour solar flare forecasts ( issued 6-hourly at 0000UT, 0600UT, 1200UT, 1800UT ) is available through the WMO Information System (WIS) (search for "solar flare"). To access this data, you need to first register as a user through the WIS webpage [see below, for url].

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